martes, 26 de junio de 2012

Por qué AMLO ganará - Víctor M. Toledo



Víctor M. Toledo

Foto
Cuadro

Durante los meses recientes, el IFE registró más de mil encuestas realizadas por todos los rumbos del país y a todas las escalas. Centrar la mirada en una sola cifra es reducir y congelar la realidad; es un acto absurdo e inútil, más aún cuando la fiabilidad de las casas encuestadoras se encuentra, por decir lo menos, bajo la tierra. Hoy hacemos un análisis del panorama electoral basado en el conjunto de evidencias que surgen de la totalidad del contexto. Se trata de registrar lo que se percibe, se escucha, se mira, se husmea y se intuye a partir de las evidencias cotidianas, hechos sorpresivos, cambios sutiles, comparaciones con el pasado y, por supuesto, todo tipo de sondeos, simulacros y evaluaciones, incluyendo sitios de Internet.

1. AMLO gana de manera rotunda en todas las comunidades académicas donde hubo simulacros. En 18 universidades públicas y privadas del DF, Guanajuato, Jalisco y Michoacán AMLO gana con entre 30 y 91 por ciento de los votos de estudiantes, profesores, investigadores y empleados, y con un promedio del 72.6 por ciento (unos 80 mil votos computados). Sorprenden los resultados en el Iteso de Guadalajara y en la Universidad de Guanajuato, dos estados panistas. Los estudiantes universitarios representan la tercera parte del voto joven.

2. En los encuentros masivos, AMLO no solamente se encuentra muy arriba de sus dos principales competidores en términos cuantitativos, sino en la calidad de los participantes. Entre el 10 de abril y el 27 de junio AMLO realizó 115 mítines de carácter popular (salvo algunas visitas a universidades y tecnológicos), que incluyó todas las 32 capitales, y las 80 ciudades más importantes de México. El recorrido se hizo a un increíble ritmo de casi dos mítines por día. Si se considera que la inmensa mayoría de los asistentes acuden por su propia voluntad, contra las prácticas de acarreo del PRI y el PAN, el candidato de la izquierda tuvo contacto directo con entre 600 mil y un millón 115 mil verdaderos ciudadanos, ello sin incluir el cierre de la ciudad de México. La irradiación de esta energía civil hacia los ámbitos sociales no puede ignorarse.

3. En cuanto al voto joven, menores de 30 años, cuyo contingente representa la tercera parte del total de votantes, el análisis de las encuestas de Reforma revela que entre el 28 de marzo y el 31 de mayo las preferencias por AMLO se incrementaron 12 puntos, las de EPN descendieron 16 puntos y las de JVM bajaron 4 puntos. Si estas tendencias se mantienen se llegaría al día de la elección con 37 por ciento del voto joven para AMLO, 28 por ciento para EPN y 20 por ciento para JVM. Esta estimación se hace sin ponderar los inesperados eventos y expresiones anti-Peña que arrancaron en la Universidad Iberoamericana y se extendieron en manifestaciones por todo el país, dando lugar al movimiento #YoSoy132.

4. Hay un cúmulo de rarezas, de indicadores sorpresivos, que deben tomarse en cuenta porque contradicen las evaluaciones de las encuestas dominantes que sitúan a EPN muy arriba. Aquí deben citarse los sondeos por Internet como El Menos Peor, donde AMLO lleva 70 por ciento de las preferencias de un total de 272 mil votantes; o la encuesta electrónica realizada por Milenio Tv y retirada de inmediato porque AMLO la encabezaba con 85 por ciento de los votos. También destaca la encuesta semanal del SNTE y Panal, supuestamente confidencial, con padres de familia, donde AMLO aventaja por seis puntos, y la encuesta que levantó un taxista del DF con más de 4 mil pasajeros, con AMLO arrasando. Finalmente la cereza en el pastel: la encuesta levantada por Werevertumorro.mx, que es el canal de YouTube más visitado de Iberoamérica, con casi 4 millones de seguidores, y donde AMLO obtuvo 66 por ciento de casi 100 mil votos (abril 28).

5. Otra evidencia son las tendencias electorales, los cambios de preferencias a través del tiempo. Aquí hay una coincidencia de varias encuestas y sondeos efectuados cronológicamente que marcan un ascenso constante de AMLO, una caída permanente de EPN y un estado estacionario o ligeramente a la baja de JVM. Esto se lee en encuestas de escala nacional o estatal, como DF, Puebla, BC y Jalisco (ver cuadro).

6. Finalmente, están los elementos circunstanciales. Una apretada síntesis personal es: votarán por AMLO la homeópata de la familia, el grupo de la hija de la señora trabajadora que estudia ciencias de la educación, mi cardiólogo, el joven encargado de un estacionamiento público en Tlaxcala, la familia de la señora que hace el aseo en el estudio, la experta de Unysis Guadalajara que siempre lo detestó, los papás de todo el grupo del hijo de un amigo en Xalapa, 60 por ciento de los usuarios de la micro financiera Invierta, varias amigas y amigos que siempre fueron panistas, la mitad de los vecinos, todos los parientes en primero y segundo grado, mil 600 intelectuales y artistas y un largo etcétera.

Si viviésemos en un país verdaderamente democrático y donde se respetaran las leyes, el cúmulo de evidencias aquí descritas sería suficiente para dibujar el panorama electoral. Sin embargo en una sociedad dislocada por la corrupción y con una larga tradición de trampas y fraudes electorales, ello se ve amenazado. Cuatro fenómenos alimentan lo anterior: la sospechosa insistencia por mantener a EPN a la cabeza por las seis grandes encuestadoras, que son las más publicitadas por la Tv, radio y cadenas periodísticas; la imparable compra del voto; las dudas sobre el IFE, y la ausencia de mecanismos legales para penalizar, rápida y efectivamente, los delitos electorales. El triunfo, incluso amplio, de AMLO este 1º de julio deberá ocurrir sin sobresaltos indicando que el país por fin entra a una etapa real de cambio y de consolidación democrática. El otro escenario, en una sociedad en crisis, sería simplemente una tragedia de inimaginables consecuencias. Este país no se lo merece.

Fuente: La Jornada

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