viernes, 29 de junio de 2012

MATEMATICO PRONOSTICA TRIUNFO DE AMLO POR 7 PUNTOS SOBRE PEÑA NIETO.

¿Puede ganar López Obrador?

Lucía Medina Suárez del Real

Encuestas van, encuestas vienen, y mientras tanto el doctor en Matemáticas aplicadas por la Universidad de Minnesota Gerardo Mario Ortigoza Capetillo, docente de la Universidad Veracruzana y nivel uno en el Sistema Nacional de Investigadores pronostica el triunfo de Andrés Manuel López Obrador con 37.96 por ciento, seguido de Enrique Peña Nieto con 30.7 por ciento.

El doctor Ortigoza basa sus afirmaciones en el método de autómata celular, que según él mismo explica, se utiliza también para la predicción de propagación de enfermedades y de incendios forestales. Ortigoza aplicó este método a la elección de diputados del Distrito 4 de Veracruz en 2009, donde tanto él como Mitofsky acertaron el resultado, pero la encuestadora erró 8.4 por ciento mientras que Ortigoza lo hizo en sólo 0.29 por ciento.

Por su parte, la encuesta de Reforma ubica a López Obrador como el candidato con menos puntos negativos, y a Peña Nieto como el candidato por el que más gente responde que nunca votaría. Estos datos permiten pensar que el voto del indeciso, influido por el dominante sentimiento anti-Peña, será para López Obrador.

Es innegable que el partido con la estructura más sólida, mayor disciplina y también con más recursos económicos es el PRI, que en cada elemento de propaganda de diputados y senadores difunde también a Peña Nieto.

López Obrador, en cambio, no puede atenerse a los tres partidos que lo postulan, que ni siquiera respetaron a los candidatos que él impulsó a senadores y diputados, entre ellos Porfirio Muñoz Ledo o Mario Di Costanzo. AMLO tampoco puede confiar en varios de quienes se postulan por el Movimiento Progresista al Congreso de la Unión; sabe bien que algunos de los que lo acompañan en los mítines, se cruzan de brazos berrinchudamente el resto del tiempo de campaña. Aunado a esto, López Obrador pasó cinco años fuera de las pantallas de televisión en un país gobernado por la telecracia.

Con tal panorama, ¿Cómo es entonces que AMLO es un candidato competitivo? El doctor Ortigoza da una pista: “los priístas realmente no están dispuestos a promover a Peña Nieto por su propia iniciativa”, en cambio, los lopezobradoristas (que no perredistas, petistas o ex convergentes) sí.

La diferencia ha estado en los voluntarios, son ellos quienes mandan a hacer lonas y calcomanías por su cuenta, divulgan vídeos, documentos y gráficos en las redes sociales, persuaden amigos y familiares, regalan dvds con documentales como Fraude o de la Barbarie a la esperanza, organizan cine callejero o casero, reparten volantes que diseñan ellos mismos. Otros, como Víctor Hernández y su Blog de izquierda, desmienten los ataques de PRI y PAN a horas de que se conozcan.

A estos ciudadanos de a pie que invierten tiempo y dinero en una candidatura de alguien que quizá ni conozcan, que no les prometió ningún puesto, ningún contrato, que quizá ni sabe de su existencia, el sicólogo social Serge Moscovici les llamaría: minoría activa. Minoría porque así empezaron, como una minoría que desde el 2005 se opuso al desafuero que intentó sacar de la contienda presidencial a López Obrador. Después vivieron la campaña presidencial de 2006, la resistencia al fraude electoral, la defensa del petróleo, la oposición a la reforma laboral y nuevamente la campaña presidencial de 2012. Apoyaron también otras luchas: la liberación de los presos de Atenco, el apoyo al Sindicato Mexicano de Electricistas, el combate a los transgénicos, etc.

Moscovici plantea que para una minoría influya tiene que dejar clara su existencia y su actuar; ese mensaje llevó López Obrador en sus viajes municipio por municipio, era un “existimos, y seguimos vivos”.

Como sembrando en el desierto, desde hace años el lopezobradorismo reparte el periódico Regeneración, publicación que en el nombre homenajea el periódico de los hermanos Flores Magón para concientizar al pueblo 10 años antes de la revolución. Ambos grupos repartían el periódico sin saber, o siquiera esperar resultados. Eso y otras actividades emprendidas desde 2006 están rindiendo frutos.

Hoy hay posibilidades de ganar la Presidencia de la República y con ello de iniciar una transformación, que, seamos realistas, no solucionará todo, pero sin duda hará una diferencia. Nadie espera un país perfecto, pero sí uno donde ya no se acumulen 60 mil muertos pero una guerra absurda, un país donde la clase gobernante gane la mitad de lo que hoy recibe. Una patria donde ser anciano no signifique ser pobre, y donde ser joven no signifique ser delincuente.

Los millones de voluntarios que están con López Obrador, que lo promueven por iniciativa propia, saben bien que no pueden confiarle su futuro a los partidos políticos, ya han prendido la mecha, ahora se aprestan a defender el voto, están organizados, tienen experiencia, y cada vez son más. Todos, AMLO incluido, harían bien en seguirles la pista, son informados y organizados, estarán vigilantes sea quien sea el presidente, si apoyan ahora a López Obrador no le dan un cheque en blanco, lo hacen en defensa propia.

@luciamedinas

165 comentarios:

Anónimo dijo...

Si defendamos PEMEX y expropiemos TELMEX

Anónimo dijo...

AMLO GANARA PORQUE COMPRA EL VOTO CON EL VALOR DE LA HONESTIDAD Y LA MONEDA DEL CAMBIO VERDADERO, EXCELENTE ARTICULO ME GUSTA LO COMPARTIRE VAMOS A DEFENDER LAS CASILLAS YO LLEVARE MI R-15 JEJEJE POR SI VEO UN MAPACHE Y ACTUARE EN DEFENSA PROPIA Y DE MI NACION Y DE TODOS AQUELLOS QUE CREEN EN UNA CAMBIO PORQUE PELEAMOS POR UNA MEJOR VIDA Y UNA PATRIA NUEVA AMLO 2012

Anónimo dijo...

tiene razon yo ando convenciendo gente por cuenta propia incluso al margen de morena , porque el dirigente de morena en mi localidad esta dolido porque no fue candidato a diputado y por eso no hace campaña con tanto entusiasmo, incluso se dice que esta obstaculizando apoyos para representantes de casillas,el otro dia fui a su oficina pedir perriodico regeneracion y tenia arrumbados numeros atrasado de sept- octubre los tome y con ellos ando convenceindo gente, para mi suerte los temas de sept-oct. estan vigentes, habla de una reunion de amlo con empresarios de momterrey y tambien del mov. est. del 68. etc gaste en marca-textos gasolina tambien en cervezas, porque me meti a un bar para ocupar una mesa y remarcar lo importante del periodico, para que la gente visualice rapidamente la informacion para que por flojera a leer todo tire el periodico en fin me he llevado una chinga de las buenas porque donde vivo hace un calor de la chingada ARRIBA AMLO

Anónimo dijo...

Estoy totalmente de acuerdo en el 2006 me creí lo del PELIGRO PARA México, pero al pasar el tiempo y ver el comportamiento de los panista y que estaban haciendo con la reforma energética y la reforma laboral entendi que sólo estaban tratando de vender al país en su propio beneficio como en su momento vendieron la banca y a teléfonos de mexico y por lo cual ahora tenemos al rico más grande del mundo, hecho en base a lo que pertenecia a la nación. Estoy con AMLO y a todas las personas que conozco trato de abrirles los ojos para que comprendan que no tenemos otra opción si queremos conservar la riqueza del país para los mexicanos, y no para las compañías extranjeras. No me opongo a la inversión extranjera, pero me opongo a que la riqueza que generen se vaya y no se quede distribuida de manera justa para los ciudadanos de este país que como dijo AMLO es rico en todo.

Anónimo dijo...

Y yo aca de eua.hago mi aporte sin esperar nada a cambio

Anónimo dijo...

Hola... es la primera vez qe voy a votar! .. tengo 21 años. estudio en la universidad autonoma de tlaxcala y ahi me he dado cuenta del nepotismo de la familia Ortiz que fue gobernador del estado (PAN) (Hector Ortiz) y su hermano rector de la uni (Serafin Ortiz) (PAN) acapararon el poder..y utilizan a esta universidad y a los alumnos para hacer campaña y repartir su propaganda en las comunidades para el candidato a Senador Hector Ortiz (PAN) y me da coraje porque estas personas estan enfermas de poder y solamente saqean lo poco qe hay en mi estado (animales del zoo ) ellos son de OAxaca y se burlan de nuestra gente robando descarademente. urgee un CaMBio!! tambien me crei lo del peligro para MExico y toda esa basura de la tv. pero el peligro era para sus intereses!! yo voy con AmLo ..y perdon x contar mi penas jaaa saludos y tenemos qe cuidar nuestro voto!!

Anónimo dijo...

que bueno que haya proselitismo ormiga,a la larga da frutos,eso significa que estamos convencidos de que lopez obrador en su actuar es honesto y eso es lo que necesita mexico,honestidad en sus gobernantes.arriba el deseo de cambiar y llevarlo a cabo,ok?

RAUL POPOCA dijo...

Somos profesionistas, empresarios y decididos a cambiar nuestra NACIÓN, México es de nosotros no del RIP, México para los Mexicanos. AMLO.SÍ

Anónimo dijo...

Debemos cuidar el voto, debemos estar muy pendientes, porque los priístas para eso del fraude se pintan solos...se dice que ya hay boletas circulando a favor del PRI ... NO PERMITAMOS EL FRAUDE! ..NO PERMITAMOS LA IMPOSICIÓN! México ya despertó! :D ESTAMOS CONTIGO, AMLO!!

¡¡¡AMLO PRESIDENTE!!!

Anónimo dijo...

Y si no le atina se jubila o solo va a cobrar su cheque con el peje?

Anónimo dijo...

y como dijo mi compa, " mas vale morir parado que vivir de rodillas" PRI ya largo de mexico, estamos arrtos de tus caballos de troya..pelate y no voltees pa tras

Anónimo dijo...

claro, es lo que esperan los gringos con pena nieto ( y si tengo ñ )ya que este les prometio en harvard tan pronto fuera presidente promoveria la apertura de pemex a la riqueza extranjera, y pues que caramba, lo que tanto costo a nuestros abuelos hay que defenderlo con votos en las urnas, y de una vez por todas desenmascarar a estos rufianes que nos an tenido en penurias, asi de que a votar por AMLO este domingo y temprano para no dar chance a los tranzas con el carrusel que los pri---mos lo tienen bien ejecutado, nada mas hay que cuidarlos en un lapso de tres cuadras alrededor de las casillas tienen sus casas de seguridad donde cambian las voletas marcadas por las blancas pasen la voz y triunfaremos.

Anónimo dijo...

POR SI NO LO SABEN HAY QUE CUIDAR EL CARRUSEL, 3 CUADRAS ALREDEDOR DE LAS CASILLAS TIENEN SU CASA DE SEGURIDAD Y ES AHI DONDE HACEN EL CAMBIO DE VOLETAS MARCADAS, ASI QUE DIFUNDAN ESTO PARA CUIDAR NUESTRO VOTO LIMPIO Y DE VERDAD POR MEXICO, VAMOS A GANAR AMLO.

Anónimo dijo...

AMLO DEBE SER PRESIDENTE, NO ACEPTEMOS EL VOTO DE GENTE QUE
GRITABA EN EL CASO DE LAS MUJERES
QUE SOLO POR SU APARIENCIA EL GANARIA, NO SE SI AMLO SEA LO CORRECTO PERO DEFINITIVAMENTE EPN NO LO ES, TAMPOCO QUIERO CREER QUE HAYA GANADO EL PRI EN ATENCO. ¿ACASO LES GUSTA QUE VIOLEN A SUS MUJERES Y LOS HUMILLEN? VAMOS AMLO!!!

Anónimo dijo...

Esto es por comenzar el PRI no mas ellos hecharon a andar al vieja maquinaria pues estoy dispuesto a pararla, yo SOY UN LOCO IDEALISTA UTOPICO NADIE ME PAGA O ME LLEVA PORQUE PUEDO VENGO Y PORQUE VENGO PUEDO, COJE EL FUSIL Y BAILA...

sinlimitewalton dijo...

AMLO ES MI PRESIDENTE SI EL SE ADJUDICO COMO TAL EN LAS ELECCIONES PASADAS Y ESTUVO EN LO CORRECTO AHORA EL PUEBLO LE DARA LA RAZON Y NO DEJEMOS QUE NOS PISOTEEN NUESTROS DERECHOS

Ephrain Rendon dijo...

Esta prediccion fue muy acertada... solo que los resultados estan invertidos la cantidad para AMLO fue para EPN.
RARO.

Anónimo dijo...

Pinches pejistas llorones, no ganan ni a chingazos XD

Brenda virginia sotero torres dijo...

kes k no ganamos... CLAROOO que GANAMOS... que cambiaron la puntuacion es diferente, y no es de soprenderse que nos allan hecho lo mismo.. no somos llorones solo que peleamos por lo justo...

Anónimo dijo...

AMLO presidente

Anónimo dijo...

y la evidencia matemática??????

Mariano Arrieta dijo...

llorones nos llaman los que se agachan, los que asustan con simples spots sin fundamento y se escudan en el anonimato para ofender...da la cara! a que le tienes miedo panista dolido? atte: Mariano Arrieta

ceroefra dijo...

Exelente articulo, a compartirlo, hay una cantidad increible de personas en todo el mundo que saben que estas elecciones fueron manipuladas de una forma ruin y miserable, hay miles de pruebas que dan fe del el fraude.

Anónimo dijo...

un excelentisimo articulo porque asi es, sus no perseguimos nada solo que ya paren los mismos del PRI. LO MALO ES Q NO SUCEDIO ASI, y que tendra que haber una guerra CIVIL para que el asqueroso de PEÑA RENUNCIE y defendamos a nuestro Mexico, pues si eso quieren estamos en PIE.y con usted. Sr. Presidente AMLO. FUERA PEÑA NIETO...

Anónimo dijo...

Basura Lopez Obrador enfermo de porder es peor que el PRI, merecemos algo mejor que esta basura y la de los demas partidos que son iguales.

Anónimo dijo...

Y porque gano Mancera, porque se conto lo que se voto, todos dan regalos y dinero hasta su famoso AMLO, ponganse a trabajar y dar buenos resultados a Mexico, bola de flojos.

Anónimo dijo...

Nicol Montesinos.
Todos los que buscamos el cambio verdadero estamos enojados y tristers. Porque hay un sector de México que se vendió por una triste tarjeta con $700 pesos y por una despensa Esos... son los verdaderos flojos vender la patria por un triste incentivo, ¿DEJEMOSNOS DE INDIVIDUALISMOS, ELLOS SON RICOS PORQUE AVIENTAN UNAS CUANTAS MIGAJAS Y COMO PERRILLOS VAN LOS TONTOS ATRAS DE ELLOS, PENSANDO QUE ES LA UNICA MANERA DE TENER "RECURSOS" TRABAJEMOS EN EQUIPO ESTE PAIS LO REQUIERE, DEJEMOS DE NEGATIVISMOS, SI NOS GANARON, PERO NO NOS VENCIERON, SEGUIREMOS LUCHANDO Y ESPEREMOS QUE LA REPRESION NO HAGA OTRO 68

Anónimo dijo...

Ojala se realice el conteo voto x voto ... realmente hay mucha incertidumbre, el resultado va navegando y al llegar al sistema puede ser manipulado .. claro que si ... todo se puede en el mundo de los sistemas ... ¿como es posible que al caminar por las calles los resultados mas altos son del PRD? ... estoy impresionado por ello ... Nieto llego hablando con la corona encima sin tener en cuenta que hay un conteo todavia, se le fue de las manos mentir en esa parte al menos .... al final cada quien dara cuentas de su vida una vez muertos .....

miguel dijo...

La manipulación es parte fundamental de la política por ello es política y a ello se le conoce como política ficción, tomemos encuentra que EPN gano y México perdió

La verdad es que no creo que pase algo o por lo menos el pueblo de México se quedara con un amargo dolor interno como siempre.

Pregunta, que solo con un levantamiento de armas estaremos en democracia, la verdad no veo que solo con palabras y bonitos comentarios o escritos pase algo bueno.

Solo pensemos la única forma de hacer política en contra de la política es atacando al gobierno con inversiones de empresarios serios y haciendo que las empresas del gobierno fracasen, y como dirán ustedes: pues lógicamente incrementando el valor de la sustentabilidad es decir, aprovechemos el consumo de energéticos naturales como: luz haciéndola foto voltaica, agua de lluvia potabilizada, agua de mar como plasma y cura de enfermedades, reciclado de desechos no degrada les utilizar en forma lógica la naturaleza humana, como la alimentación y el uso correcto de mecanismos de vida.

Bueno por lo tanto yo trabajo en la sustentabilidad de la familia y México por la vida.


Miguel fuentes SONI

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